Hurricane Forecast for the 2025 Atlantic Season

🌊 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

• Season timeline: June 1 – November 30
• They project:
  • 13–19 named storms
  • 6–10 hurricanes
  • 3–5 major hurricanes (Category 3+)
• Confidence levels:
  •  60% chance of above-normal activity
  •  30% chance of near-normal
  •  10% chance of below-normal
• Why? Key drivers:
  • ENSO-neutral conditions—no El Niño or La Niña dampening storms
  • Warmer-than-average Atlantic sea surface temps
  • Weaker upper-level winds (less wind shear)
  • Active West African monsoon encouraging tropical wave formation

Colorado State University (Phil Klotzbach)

• As of June 11, 2025:

  • 17 named storms

  • 9 hurricanes

  • 4 major hurricanes

• Forecast unchanged from April’s outlook:

  • 51% chance of ≥1 major hurricane landfall on U.S. coast (vs. 43% average)

  • 26% chance for East Coast (avg 21%); 33% chance for Gulf Coast (avg 27%)

• What’s fueling this?

  • ENSO-neutral conditions

  • Slightly warmer tropical Atlantic waters

  • Historical CO₂ patterns similar to analog years (1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2021)

  • CSU strongly urges coastal readiness—“It only takes one hurricane…”

🌐 Key Drivers Behind the Outlook

• • ENSO-neutral conditions — Muted influence on Atlantic storms, unlike El Niño which suppresses activity.

  • Warm Atlantic SSTs — Provide the energy needed for storm formation and intensification.

  • Lower wind shear — Easier environment for tropical systems to organize.

  • Active West African monsoon — More tropical waves, which are the seeds for Atlantic storms

🗣 On the Ground: Warnings & Impacts

• • Gulf Coast & Texas: Agencies like NOAA, CSU, and AccuWeather highlight elevated risk for landfall; emergency planners in Texas, Florida, and Gulf states are already issuing preparedness advice

  • Preparation recommendations:

    • Review evacuation routes

    • Finalize emergency kits and preparedness plans

    • Stay tuned to reliable sources for alerts

📈 Historical Context

• Average season (1991–2020): 14.4 storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes

• Comparison to previous:
  • 2024 was notably active: 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 6 major. NOAA sees 2025 slightly milder numerically, but still above normal

📝 What You Should Do

• Every coastal resident: Plan now—even one storm makes a season “active.”

• Signs to watch: Watch for tropical waves coming off Africa, gradually increasing sea-surface temperatures, and any signs of changing ENSO patterns.
• Stay informed: Follow NOAA, National Hurricane Center (NHC), local National Weather Service offices, and trusted media.

🔗 Official Forecasts & Reports

• NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook – Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory – June 2, 2025

• NOAA May 22 Outlook – Range & key details

• CSU June 11 Extended-Range Forecast – PDF with ACE, landfall probabilities

📰 Further Reading

• https://www.chron.com/weather/article/noaa-hurricane-season-2025-forecast-20340743.php?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/colorado-state-continues-forecast-4-major-hurricanes-2025-2025-06-11/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• https://www.chron.com/weather/article/hurricane-season-2025-texas-20337164.php?utm_source=chatgpt.com

📝 Final Take

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be above-average, with NOAA favoring an elevated activity season and CSU backing that with specific landfall risk analysis. Whether you’re in Florida, along the Gulf Coast, or on the East Coast, now is the time to prepare. Follow the official links above, set up emergency alerts, and ensure your hurricane readiness plan is in place.

Stay safe and stay prepared!